It would take that perfect storm to take NASCAR down a notch

Ed Hinton might not always be right, but he’s never in doubt.

In his column from Indianapolis posted elsewhere on thatsracin.com Saturday, you can see Ed in top form, speaking in the kind of absolutes that he lives by.

“If Danica Patrick becomes the first female winner of the (Indianapolis) 500, Indy might gain only a tie for international headlines. Six hours earlier because of the trans-Atlantic time difference, England’s Lewis Hamilton could become first black driver to win Monaco – or any major motor race, anywhere.

“Should either or both happen, nothing NASCAR could do could make the 600 more than it was until a decade ago: a Memorial Day afterthought.”

I don’t have any argument against that. (As an aside, you’ll also notice how Ed loves to translate obvious foreign words – like “grand prix” into great prize – for his readers. I can do that, too. For example, LaJoie is French for “the joie.”)

Well, maybe I do have one.

No matter who wins the Formula One race at Monaco Sunday, America won’t care.

Hamilton is, by all accounts, a remarkable talent who takes the lead in the F1 standings into Sunday’s event. But he’s not an American, and American sports fans simply don’t get worked up about any sport where Americans aren’t a factor.

Yes, there is an American driver in F1. His name is Scott Speed and I am sure his parents are proud of him. But he is not a competitive factor in that series, and until he is Americans aren’t going to connect with F1 just because Speed is marked “present” when the series takes roll.

A victory by Hamilton Sunday would be important in the grand scheme of motorsports, of course, and it would up the already keen pressure on NASCAR to find people of color to compete at its highest levels.

Internationally it would be a big story, too. World Cup soccer is a big deal internationally, but in the United States it never will be until our team has a shot to win it. I’m not saying that’s right, but I am saying that’s the way it is.

A Danica Patrick victory at Indianapolis, of course, is a whole other deal.

Patrick is already the only story anybody cares about in American open-wheel racing, which is a sad but nonetheless true state of affairs for that discipline. If she’s the one drinking milk in victory lane after 500 miles Sunday, she’ll be on the front page of virtually every newspaper in America on Monday.

But while Hinton is right in saying that if Patrick wins at Indy and Hamilton wins in Monaco, the Coca-Cola 600 will get only third billing around the world, what he doesn’t say is that unless all of that falls into place things will be right like they’ve been for the past 10 years or so.

If you’re a Formula One fan in this country, chances are it’s because you’re one of those people who gets pleasure out of knowing things about something obscure, like those people who listen only to bands who’ve not yet become commercially successful.

You get up at the crack of dawn on Sunday to watch races from all over the world on Speed, and knowing that not very many people are doing that makes you feel special.

As for Indianapolis, the fact that the Indy Racing League had that race on its schedule is the reason Ed Hinton is back there this May. If the Championship Auto Racing Teams faction in the open-wheel split had Indy, then the IRL might be as irrelevant as the ChampCar World Series, the direct CART descendant, is today.

Unless there’s the perfect scenario Hinton talks about, with Patrick and/or Hamilton winning Sunday, far more people who read the papers Ed works for will care who wins at Lowe’s Motor Speedway than about who wins at Indy and Monaco combined.

And I have no doubt about that.