Friday, September 29, 2006

Qualifying vs. guarantees and don't expect too much from Chase 'tweaks'

A few thoughts from a slacker missing a second straight Chase weekend. (Why am I missing Kansas? My daughter’s about to have her first child and I am on standby alert):

  • It sounds like a good plan to let the fastest 43 drivers make each week’s race, doing away with any kind of provisionals.
    But that’s a really, really bad idea.
    If the No. 8 car blows a tire in Turn 2 of its qualifying lap and doesn’t post a speed, how do you tell the ticket buyers who show up on Sunday that Dale Earnhardt Jr. won’t be racing? Or Jeff Gordon, or whoever your favorite driver is?
    Tracks sell tickets weeks and months in advance. There’s an implied promise that the sport’s top stars are going to be competing. That’s one of NASCAR’s selling points, that all of the "best of the best" are going to be there at one time.
    Now a driver could get hurt and miss a race or something, but there’s no control over that. Otherwise, your stars have to race and there needs to be a reasonable way to make that happen. It’s reasonable to ask a team to be in the top 35 (it’d be 30 if I ran things) to have that protection, but the protection has to be there.

  • I am afraid that a lot of people have unreasonably high expectations about changes that NASCAR might make to the Chase for the Nextel Cup format after this year.
    I’ll be stunned if sweeping alterations are made. Remember, the word Brian France used in July when he changes would be considered was "tweaks."
    I’ve proposed my own revamping of the system and so have many others, but that’s not what is being looked at. It’s not going to be a wholesale alteration.
    There seems to be a consensus that winning a race should be worth more points. But it’s not going to 50 more, it’s going to be more like 10 additional points for a win.
    The window to make the Chase might grow from 400 points behind first after 26 races to 500 points, but that’s not that big of a change either and even that might not happen.
    I will be less surprised, but still surprised, if the number of automatic qualifiers grows beyond 10. As for any kind of "wild card" to let in a driver who’s won races and yet isn’t in the top 10 at the Chase cutoff, I think that idea intrigues NASCAR. But I also think they’re worried about how to write a rule that doesn’t wind up biting them in some kind of unforeseen, quirky way.
  • I keep coming back to the idea of double-file restarts for lead-lap cars and wondering why NASCAR doesn’t do it.
    Keep the free pass for a lapped car on each yellow, but all lap-down cars start behind the cars on the lead lap. The leader can choose whether to start on the inside or the outside. Second chooses whether to start alongside the leader or right behind him. Third then chooses and so on. With 25 (maybe even 50) laps to go, all restarts are single-file.
  • As discussed earlier, anybody who believes the test of Indy Racing League cars at Daytona this week was just at test to see if the IRL could test there is beyond naïve.
    Some of the speculation was that the IRL might be looking at a Labor Day weekend date for a race there next year or, more likely, in 2008. There’s also the weekend between the Rolex 24 and the start of Speedweeks for NASCAR, but that’s also Super Bowl weekend and I think the Sunday afternoon of Labor Day weekend is a better idea.
    One reason that might not happen? An IRL race at Daytona that afternoon might be a lot more interesting to watch than that night’s Nextel Cup race from California.
  • I don’t know A.J. Allmendinger at all, but you had to be impressed by what he did in his Truck Series debut at New Hampshire.
    With him and Juan Montoya both in the field for Friday’s Automobile Racing Club of America race at Talladega, there will be a lot more media hanging around for that event than there otherwise would be.
    I could be completely wrong about this, but I just believe Allmendinger is pulling a "Danica" with this whole flirtation with NASCAR. By every indication, he’s an incredibly talented driver and I don’t doubt that he might make it in stock cars given time and the right team. But he doesn’t have a contract with anybody in ChampCar, and using NASCAR as a lever certainly helped Danica Patrick maximize her earning potential.
    We’ll see.
  • 29 comments:

    Monkeesfan said...

    First off, David, congradulations on pending grandfatherhood - when I saw my then-four-day-old niece way back in December 1998 it warmed my heart as I'm sure your grandchild will warm yours.

    ON QUALIFYING - The only fair solution to the entire qualifying controversy is - no send-homes. Qualifying determines where you start, not whether you start. Kansas can easily afford to have started the four drivers who got sent home, and beyond that. The argument that you'd have too many cars that are too slow is nonsense; the corollary argument about too few pit stalls has some merit, but pit-sharing by the big multicar teams can help there. It's not just the big stars that sell tickets, it's everyone.

    ON CHASE CHANGES - there is zero reason to have any expectations on changes to the Chase because the entire concept of the Chase is wrong. Adding ten points or fifty to winning a race, while meritorious, isn't enough, and despite what Brian "Chuckles Sullivan" France says, eventually there will be sweeping alterations as the fundamental unsoundness of the Chase concept combined with declining TV ratings and attendence for the races eventually catch up to NASCAR.

    On the free pass under yellow - let's stop thius farce and just go back to racing to the caution. It works and isn't unsafe - if you saw the Truex-Kvapil wreck at New Hampshire among other such incidents you saw that the whole field-freeze rule hasn't made anything safer; also at NHIS in the Truck race, Kyle Busch was ahead of Johnny Benson in Turn Three when a late yellow flew, but Benson was ruled the leader - yet another example of the absurdity of determining the leader anywhere except at the stripe. So do away with this farce and go back to racing to the caution.

    ON IRL AT DAYTONA - put engine restrictors and draft-inducing raw drag on the rear wings and schedule a 300-mile Daytona Indy 300 for the week before Talladega's Autumn 500.

    Salpivkphc said...

    Easy solution for qualifying problems for a 'star'. Give each driver 2 provisional starts per year to use for 'unforseen circumstances', then let everyone race for their starting spot. Tweaking a seriously flawed system won't do much to help, just make it even more artificial.

    Anonymous said...

    You know David you can't seem to see the forest for the trees, in Golf when Tiger Woods, The Golden Bear and yes fan favorite Arnie Palmer misses the cut they go home, Golf still goes on fans still come to watch.

    In NHRA drag racing when John Force does not qualify he loads up and goes home, same with the teams in Top Fuel and Pro Stock, gee guess what David, drag racing goes on fans still come to watch.

    Why is it only in NASCAR that we can't send home a top team, why the world of racing would come to halt and the sun would stop shinning, the moon would not rise again and the wind and rain would never be felt again.

    If Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt, Greg Biffle et el miss a race because they were not fast enough or they wrecked in qualifying or your tired excuse of what if a tire went down, oh well, that is the breaks, you learn how to qualify fast enough, how to not wreck for one lap.

    NASCAR has become nothing but a joke.

    guberalski said...

    Happy grand parenting David! I'd like to see a few more points awarded to the winner of each race...then leave the chase stuff alone. Also, maybe cut the guaranteed spots down to 30? Puts qualifying back into the hunt.

    Anonymous said...

    To Anonymous;
    He said stars like Jr. and Gordon; how the heck does the name Greg Biffle fit in that one? I don't understand the comment on Nascar becoming a joke either.
    Nascar is entertainment, a sport,a way of life.There is always someone waiting to point out mistakes/accidents/problems etc.against anyone in the public eye.If you feel that it is such a joke maybe you should save your wisecracks and putdowns for those who deserve them(Like Bush)and find something else to occupy your time.

    Jo said...

    David, best wishes to you and your daughter and family on your impending wonderful news! We want pictures! :-)

    I agree that there will be few changes to the Chase--I'd like to see more than 10 points for a win, but as long as they don't give points for qualifying, I'll survive.

    Putting more than 43 teams on track might be safe at a few of the larger modern tracks, but on a track like Dover, Bristol, or Martinsville, frankly, they need to go back to the 40 or 36-car fields for safety. Maybe in the days of racing on the beach it was acceptable to let 60 or 70 cars start, because half would fall out before a few laps elapsed. But today, with the ultra high speeds and heavy cars, that's just a disaster waiting to happen. (And frankly, a lot of the "let-ins" would probably pull a Morgan Shepherd, race 10 laps and retire so that they didn't have to buy an extra set of tires or pay a pit crew. How would that improve the racing?)

    The argument about golfers going home after missing the cut or drag racers going home after elimination races doesn't hold up--at least they have been there and performed for the fans--for three or more days in the case of the golfers, depending on when practice rounds and the pro-am are scheduled.

    I prefer the idea of giving a team in the top twenty in the previous year two provisionals for the next year, and a team 20-40 the next year three provisionals (the assumption being that those teams need them more than the stronger teams will). When the Chase starts, give the Chasers automatic provisionals even if their team is out of them; that way they'll be able to compete fairly in the Chase. Good teams hardly ever use provisionals; Jeff Gordon has taken only two or three provisionals in his CAREER. Give the safety net to the teams who need it and let the chips fall where they may.

    Anonymous said...

    Jo Said: The argument about golfers going home after missing the cut or drag racers going home after elimination races doesn't hold up--at least they have been there and performed for the fans--for three or more days in the case of the golfers, depending on when practice rounds and the pro-am are scheduled.

    My Reply: If You failed to qualify in Drag Racing you load and go home you don't get to race in round one!

    But lets go with your attempt to show me wrong, OK?

    In NASCAR the teams get to go out on the track and perform before qualifying for two pratice sessions so the fans have just as much chance of watching a NASCAR star as they do a drag racing star, after all in NASCAR they can run as many as they want in each one hour practice.

    In drag racing you get four passes down the track and that is it, you are qualifying as you practice and adjust, and the fans only get to see the stars from 6.9 seconds to 4.5 seconds at a time for those four rounds of qualifying/practice.

    In Golf the money days are Saturday and Sunday, consider Thursday and Friday as Qualifying when most are at work by the way.

    One last thing Just what gives Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jeff Gordon more of a right to be in the race then a Greg Biffle or a Carl Edwards? Or even Michael Waltrip as long as he can get in on speed.

    Anonymous said...

    Qualifying for a drag race is different than qualifying in NASCAR. They get four rounds of qualifying where as NASCAR only has one. If John Force blows a motor in the first round of qualifying, he still has three shots left. As for golf. the rounds played before the cut are still cound towards the overall leaderboard. So if Tiger misses the cut, it means he was having a bad weekend and would have never have had the chance to win the tournament. Although 35 guarenteed spots is a bit much. Lets bring it back down to 20 or so.

    Janinda said...

    David, as you stated, "There’s an implied promise that the sport’s top stars are going to be competing". This not only affects qualifying, it affects penalties. I think this rule is what has tied NASCAR's hands when dealing penalties for rough driving. They threaten to sit drivers each and every week, but let's face it... if Carl Edwards wants to spin Tony in the pits, or come out of the pits and hit Jr., NASCAR can't do anything. They can't possibly sit one of their newest stars, or tell the official office supplier they won't be racing on Sunday. This rule has to go. It has taken too much power from NASCAR and given it to the corporations.

    Monkeesfan said...

    jo, you're wrong. Bristol, Martinsville et al can handle 50-car fields. The "disaster waiting to happen" argument is BS. As for cars that would run ten laps and the retire - almost all the cars that go home are legitimate racers who don't do that.

    No more send-homes. Qualifying determines where you start, not whether you start. There's no reason not to start all entries.

    David Poole said...

    Drag racing and golf are different for the very reason cited in one of the comments above. In drag racing, you get four runs to make the cutoff speed. In golf, you have 36 holes to qualify for the weekend. Use the golf analogy and if it were NASCAR you'd get one hole. If you hit a perfect drive that rolls into a divot and you make a bogey, you're gone.

    As for "no send homes," what happens if you have 55 guys show up, like you could have at Indy. Or 60, as there has been at Daytona sometimes? While 43 might not be a magic number, there has to be a limit. I know 75 cars raced in the first Southern 500, but the sport's a little different now.

    StewartFan said...

    Seems like the chase has found us a figure for the number of guaranteed starters, and we can use it all year. Bring the number down from 35 to 10 and let the others fall where they may.

    I've heard that they used to qualify with more laps also, maybe 5 instead of 2. If you had to run all 5, then putting a qualifying setup on your car would be useless. I think this would also help. It would also help with the guys who try to qualify on time during an impound race, only to wreck it 10 laps in 'cause they couldn't change it for the race.

    If they don't have a maximum number of cars, then many more would show up knowing they could be in the race no matter what. This would be a nightmare. the no send-homes theory just won't work.

    KenP said...

    I hear the golf analogy with Tiger Woods missing the cut and then he goes home, but I would suspect the network execs cry when Tiger leaves any tournament, stats show viewership goes down over the next two days. The same would happen if any premier driver missed a Nextel Cup race. I would even take five more drivers off of the guaranteed list (25) and let them race. Everybody else needs find a way to make it in on speed.
    I would not want 47 drivers to make the race, because two or three would just drive thirty laps and then park it. That only hurts the drivers who just make the field, hoping for a "big" check after their short day (about $2K per lap if they get $60K for 43rd). Not bad for 30 minutes of work.
    And I totally agree with David about A.J. Allmendinger, this is a "Danica" move. He would be great in NASCAR, but he only raced in the truck when he was in the process of being fired at RuSport. He was impressive in his backup car at NHIS, but I think he is using NASCAR as a contract negotiation ploy. I think he will be back in Champ Car as the "Great American Hope".

    Monkeesfan said...

    kenp, so waht if two or three extra drivers would run thirty laps and then park it? As they got more and more track time they'd run more and more laps.

    Monkeesfan said...

    David, what would happen if you had 55 entries? You start 55 cars; the multicar teams like Hendrikc can share pits between their drivers. No, there doesn't have to be a "limit," because the absurdities involved in the varied provisional rules show the sport can't afford to stiffarm teams and drivers in qualifying. The sport may be "a little different now," but it isn't (or is not supposed to be) so different as to limit fields to just 43 cars.

    Redvette said...

    monkeesfan,
    Stop with your ridiculous "Run them all" philosophy...We're in the 21st century now.

    I did see some interesting ideas in here though. How about that 5 lap qualifying? It'll make it a longer qualifying day but we see the cars in raceday trim. How about 2 days of qualifying? Mishap on day one...You have day two to make it in. How about 5 laps and 2 days? No excuses...Go or Go Home!

    Monkeesfan said...

    redvette, stop it yourself. "This is the 21st century now." That is irrelevent.
    Start all entries. There is No reason not to.

    Kurt Smith said...

    I actually like the idea of 10 more points for a win. I'm totally opposed to giving 400 or so points for a driver's first win. Someone who wins a race on fuel mileage should not be in the playoffs over someone with ten top fives but no wins. You can't just make the emphasis on winning or losing, because there are 42 losers every race.

    As far as the top 35 rule, I'm actually ok with it, but I agree that it should be 30 or 25, not 35. I think once you get to #25 in the standings you've got the stars pretty much covered, and they should be in the race from week to week. Like it or not, sponsors are shelling out the bucks, and they're not going to be happy if the Bud car is not in the race.

    Kurt Smith said...

    55 cars?!?

    You want to try that at Martinsville?

    Redvette said...

    Monkeesfan,
    You bore me with this endless rant for all the cars to start. Multicar teams share their pits? Why? They're usually the fastest cars. Look at pit road Kansas. You want more cars in there? Qualifying isn't just for pits...It gets the best cars in the show and weeds out the rest. This isn't practice to get better it's the CUP Series. If you're not ready practice in Busch.

    raceman1980 said...

    Qualifying became a joke when they instituted the champions provisional so the King could race for as long as he wanted, no matter how uncompetitive he was at the end of his career. Look at how that provisional is used today by teams to insure they get a car in the field whether or not it deserves to be there. To address the one mistake and miss the race issue, the sport can just go back to 2 rounds of qualifying. If a team blows a tire twice in a row they deserve to go home. The reason given for going to 1 qualifying round was to cut costs. Well...I just read today that Evernham needs $20M per car per year to compete for a title. I can't believe that going back to 2 rounds would blow up the budgets of the teams. Another topic that I would like to address is the current practice of closing pit road. I believe pit road would be safer if the lead lap cars were allowed to pit as they came to the pit road entrance. This would stagger the pit sequencing somewhat and cut down the instances of cars being hit entering/exiting thier pit stalls. It would also reward the drivers that can build multi-second leads, and eliminate the 1st place car actually being disadvantaged when a late race caution appears.

    MikeCanuck said...

    Re: Qualifying... How about getting rid of top 35 and using the old Daytona 500 qualifying method (Time trials for front row, Twin Qualifying races for the next 28, Back to time trial speed for pos. 30-36, then owners points to fill things out). It is & was the most complete and fair, albeit somewhat complex method to fill out a show that there was in racing. There were several opportunities for teams to get into the field, as opposed to messing up one qualifying lap and going home. You could qualify on speed, race your way in, or if you were having a real bad week, still make the show on past performances (points) if you were high enough up (ironically, the last spot usually went to the team around 35th in points)

    Now an issue that might arise would be how they would go about scheduling what is normally a week long process into a single weekend, this is not as hard as it seems. You could maintain the Friday schedule by running a practice session before time trials. Then eliminate the practice session on Saturday morning in favour of the Twin qualifying races, however long the officials wish to make them. Either that or run the qualifying races on the Friday as well, which may allow NASCAR to impound the cars for Saturday, if they so choose.

    This qualifying method would be a benefit on several fronts. To the fans, it would ensure that the best 43 teams got in the race each week, since if you could not get in the show through this method, you probably didn't deserve to be in the race anyway. It may even serve to help eliminate the "park and get paid" cars that frustrate fans, as they would need to actually work to get into the race, not just post one lucky lap and collect their 50K. Plus it would add greater intregue to the weekend, as the Twin 125's always had exciting stories to them with who gets in and who goes home. To the teams it would allow several opportunities to get into the race, which is great for the underdogs, plus allow a more accurate race related "test" session to set up the cars for Sunday. For the networks and tracks it gives them two more races to get sponsorship & revenue from during the weekend. As a fan would you rather pay $15 for time trials alone, or $30 for time trials & 2 intense qualifying races.. .I know what I would pick. And for the sponsors, it gives them a second race in the weekend for exposure, this one with a smaller field which would probably give ALL sponsors extra TV time. I can't think of many reasons why this wouldn't work

    Monkeesfan said...

    redvette, you're boring me with your foolish and inaccurate opinion against starting all entries. Yes, multicar teams share pits - so what if they're the fastest cars? Why? Because they can handle it. "Look at pit road at Kansas. You want more cars in there?" I sure as hell do, because they belong in the race. They can handle more than 43 cars. Qualifying right now does nothing - we don't need to weed out anyone, they all belong in the race. Period.

    Monkeesfan said...

    kurt smith,

    YES, 55 cars at Martinsville. They can handle that.

    Anonymous said...

    While we're suggesting changes, I'd like to see something different with green-white-checker finishes that go beyond the advertised distance. Park all of the cars that are at least one lap down before the green drops. This minimizes the chance of another caution ending the race prematurely, which is the point of the GWC.

    Regarding the free-pass rule, every driver should only get one per race. If the first car a lap down has already used his, then go the first car that hasn't. The point of the rule is to keep races interesting by ensuring that there are a fair number of cars on the lead lap, not to reward somebody for being the first car a lap down.

    Dan Benton said...

    Didn't 'ol DW prove to us that guaranteeing someone a spot was a bad idea? If someone can't get in on speed, they shouldn't be there. I don't care what your name is. In my mind, NASCAR is being exceedingly short-sighted. They're so concerned about keeping certian people "in the show", that they're keeping potential future stars out. Let's say I start up a race team next year, what are my legitimite chances of getting my driver into the Daytona 500? Last year, after all of the "guaranteed" spots and provisionals ans what-not, I think they had like 4 open slots. Kind of hard for my driver to get a lot of seat time. And don't use the Busch series as an excuse either. If you will recall, Tony Stewart never won when he was in the Busch series full-time.

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